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:: Volume 1, Issue 1 (8-2026) ::
مطالعات بین رشته ای انقلاب اسلامی 2026, 1(1): 22-43 Back to browse issues page
Futures study of the Axis of Resistance based on the structure and strategy of the actors (based on developments from Operation Al-Aqsa Storm through the aftermath of the Ramadan War)
Ayub Nikunahad
Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense University & --
Abstract:   (45 Views)
Since its conceptual and operational inception, the Axis of Resistance has experienced numerous political-military ups and downs. In this context, developments on the ground from Operation Al-Aqsa Storm on October 7, 2023, through the post-Ramadan War (2026) period in Iran, indicate fundamental transformations in regional dynamics that profoundly impact the future of this axis. The present study aims to analyze the scenarios facing the Axis of Resistance based on the interests and strategies of the actors involved. The main research question is: How can the future of the Axis of Resistance be delineated based on field realities? The research was conducted using the method of analyzing the structure and strategy of actors, the Mactor software, and an expert questionnaire. The findings indicate that, consistent with field developments and regional/international realities, two likely scenarios emerge as the most significant ones facing the Axis of Resistance: first, a change in the structure, strategy, and nature of the Axis, wherein Iran, by exercising more centralized and conditional control, redefines its network from an offensive tool into a defensive shield, and the Axis is restructured around Shiite actors (Iran, Hashd al-Shaabi, and Hezbollah); and second, the scenario of dissolution and gradual disintegration of the Axis of Resistance. Actors such as Iran, the United States, the Israeli regime, and Russia were identified as the most influential players in the future of the Axis of Resistance. The research results indicate that the future of the Axis of Resistance does not lie on a path of expansion, but rather fluctuates within a spectrum ranging from strategic redefinition to gradual dissolution, and will depend on the strategic developments of key actors, particularly Iran and the United States. Currently, the survival of the Axis of Resistance takes precedence over its expansion, and the primary strategy of its members remains survival and crisis management.
Keywords: Axis of Resistance, West Asia, Scenario Planning, Structural Change, Dissolution, Actors' Interests, Islamic Republic of Iran
Full-Text [PDF 1178 kb]   (19 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2026/07/23 | Accepted: 2026/08/22 | Published: 2026/08/26
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nikunahad A. Futures study of the Axis of Resistance based on the structure and strategy of the actors (based on developments from Operation Al-Aqsa Storm through the aftermath of the Ramadan War). مطالعات بین رشته ای انقلاب اسلامی 2026; 1 (1) :22-43
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Volume 1, Issue 1 (8-2026) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه مطالعات بین رشته ای انقلاب اسلامی Quarterly Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies of the Islamic Revolution
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